The Texas Water Resources Institute recently discussed Texas’ drought outlook for the rest of 2026 with Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System Coordinator Joel Lisonbee, Ph.D., with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.
Housed at the University of Colorado-Boulder and part of the National Integrated Drought Information System, Lisonbee’s role is to help inform agricultural producers, industry, municipalities, leaders and residents in the entire Southern Plains region about current and future drought conditions.
TWRI: What do farmers and ranchers in Texas need to know about drought for the remainder of this year?
Lisonbee: “That depends a lot on what part of Texas they are operating in. This year, we are expecting drought improvement for most of eastern Texas, but also a hot and dry summer along the coastal bend.
Overall, drought relief is ahead, and May rainfall has been really helpful. But a long, hot summer is also ahead, so temper your expectations.
There are a few big-picture things going on that will influence our weather. First, we are transitioning out of a La Niña pattern, which will allow for a return to normal rainfall this summer, and that may feel like the drought is ending in some regions, but it will take more than a few months to make up for 5-6 years of drought, which is what some regions have weathered. Second, a forecasted El Niño usually brings above-normal precipitation in late fall and winter.
Looking beyond just the rain to hydrological drought conditions, it takes more time for streamflow and reservoir levels to recover. Soil moisture can bounce back faster in some regions after good rainfall. But streams, rivers and lakes will require more consistent and ongoing rainfall to bounce back.”
TWRI: What information do suburban and urban homeowners in Texas need to know about drought this year?
Lisonbee: “Once our spring and summer rains return, it might feel like drought is over, but I advise residents to pay attention to their local water provider, because it will take time for reservoirs to replenish.”
TWRI: What do you wish the average Texan understood better about drought in Texas?
Lisonbee: “Looking at this through my climatologist lens, Texas is the land of droughts and floods.
And, there is a reason for this.
Texas sits under the northern hemisphere subtropical ridge. People may not realize that Austin is at the same latitude as Cairo, Egypt. Austin has a much different climate than Cairo because of the Gulf that borders Texas, which brings an influx of tropical moisture and rain. With both of those systems present and competing with each other, this latitude just brings huge swings in weather conditions.
So, I think it’s important for the average Texan to remember that it is normal for the state to have major droughts and major floods, and to be prepared for both.”
TWRI: Is there anything in the drought forecast for this year that is unusual?
Lisonbee: “Yes, we are seeing some very interesting long-range forecasts.
Long-range forecasts are predicting a very strong El Niño. We’ve seen strong El Niños before, but this one is occurring at a time when the whole Pacific Ocean is unusually warm. This creates some uncertainty around how the weather patterns will respond, and past El Niño events may not be a good indicator of the next one.
An El Niño usually means a wetter winter, but every El Niño is different, and this one looks very different. We do not yet know what that will mean for weather conditions. More rain in the winter is exciting, but we are less certain about those predictions this year.
My advice would be to prepare for typical El Niño impacts, meaning a wetter winter for most of Texas, but have a backup plan in case Mother Nature has something else in mind.”
TWRI: What question do you get the most in your job, about drought, weather, climate, etc.?
Lisonbee: “I get asked all the time, ‘ When will the drought end?’ And that’s complicated, because it will end at different times for different people.
For example, if you’re a dryland cropper and a little rain comes, then that will help wet your soils, but if you irrigate from surface water, you’ll be watching upstream reservoirs. Sometimes upstream may not have gotten the rain you did, and your drought might not end until that reservoir recovers. That may be weeks, months or longer.”
TWRI: How can people stay informed?
Lisonbee: “You can stay up to date with drought development and improvement by signing up for the Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System emails; select ‘Southern Plains Drought Early Warning System’ from the drop-down menu when you sign up. For Texas-specific drought-related questions, you can email me, Joel Lisonbee.
You can also follow the U.S. Drought Monitor, with which we frequently collaborate; it is housed at the University of Nebraska and provides helpful and timely drought information.”
